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#economics

31 posts20 participants1 post today
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

I may have little time for Rachel Reeves, but as I argued in January trying to pin the blame for the continuing malaise in the UK economy on her (as much of the media continues to do), really is missing the key culprits; the Bank of England.

Lets be clear: the UK economic problems while related to external circumstances, have also been significantly worsened/engineered via the interest policy of the sado-monetarists of Threadneedle St.

#economics #politics #recession

northwestbylines.co.uk/politic

North West Bylines | Powerful Citizen Journalism · Is Rachel Reeves’ budget the real cause of the latest economic slowdown?Was Rachel Reeves’ budget solely to blame for the economic woes of the present? Chris May explains the real causes behind our economic slowdown
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

The key Q. on the regulations of financial services is this:

Was the finical crisis of 2008 an anomaly or does it reflect structural problems with banking?

If the former, then after 15 years you might agree with UK Finance (a lobbying group) that regulation needs to be rolled back to 'support' growth (they certainly have Rachel Reeves' ear).

If the latter, then loosening regulation on financial services heightens the risk of another crisis & more damage to the UK economy

#economics
h/t FT

Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

The Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) has hardly been an an effective pro-competition regulator (witness the UK's endemic problem with sectoral oligopolies), but Rachel Reeves is still defanging it further, limiting investigations on the basis of 'share of supply' & 'material influence' raising the threshold for the initiation of regulatory intervention (further).

Whatever Reeves thinks, or has been told, the UK widespread oligopolies are the problem not the solution!

#economics
h/t FT

Continued thread
Public *
AkaSci 🛰️

Chaotic and harmful policies will make the U.S. poorer—either rapidly or gradually

"Each of the individual policies they are pursuing—illegal layoffs of federal workers, mass deportations, tariffs, and Medicaid spending cuts—would be bad for the economy. But each policy is also being pursued with maximum levels of chaos and incoordination, creating unprecedented levels of economic uncertainty. This uncertainty is itself a serious economic threat."

epi.org/blog/the-macroeconomic
#Economics
2/n

Economic Policy InstituteThe macroeconomics of the Trump administration: Chaotic and harmful policies will make the United States poorer—either rapidly or graduallyThe Trump administration inherited the strongest economy of any president since George W. Bush—and unlike that economy, there was no obvious macroeconomic imbalance set to pull down growth. In short, the stage was set for the incoming administration to ride the desirable trends of rapid growth in jobs and real wages—as well as declining inflation—for…
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

Its that time of the month again; this Thursday the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee gets to vote on whether to stick or twist on interest rates.... but signs are already that despite the continuing flatlining of the UK economy, the sado-moneatarists still think 'inflationary pressures' are too high & will leave rates unchanged (again).

So, having contributed to a stagnation through two years of high(er) interest rates, they think we need to suffer some more.

#economics#politics
Continued thread
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

Following my post on managers seeing staff as a cost, is a related issue:

when managers & policy-makers adopt the economists' approach of seeing all actions as economically instrumental, then financial incentives become the model for any management 'problem', from getting the 'economically inactive' back to work, to trying to shift civil service practices....

The problem is that this thin view of personal motivation is not just often ineffective, it is often counter productive...

#economics
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

The (forced) disappearance of cash continues, but I wonder what would happen if you turn up at a card only premises, eat their food & then only offer cash?

They will say card only, but you are offering legal tender;

They might say you have consumed food without the means to pay, but you have the legal means to pay.

Would they call the police & how would this be litigated I wonder?

Just needs a group to organise this sort of action, and we might find out?

#economics
theguardian.com/money/2025/mar

The Guardian · ‘A fundamental right’: UK high street chains and restaurants challenged over refusal to accept cashBy Jon Ungoed-Thomas
Public *
GhostOnTheHalfShell

mar 15

5 min

How to kill the goose which lays golden eggs. University layoffs.. research shutdowns, Cuts to basic research in government foundations and agencies, universities revoking degrees, and all the crazy shit ICE is doing, I certainly painting an American education and a unique fashion.

And you can have a side of deadly preventable disease diseases!

youtube.com/watch?v=76jK-QfHTS

YouTubeKilling the Golden Goose and Other AdventuresBy GhostOnTheHalfShell
#economics#uspol
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

As pressure builds on Rachel Reeves to relax or shift her self-imposed fiscal rules, the Q. is whether she is one of those people who respond to pressure by doubling down on the criticised decision.

As so often (as Modern Monetary Theory adopts are no doubt screaming), the idea that the state could create credit (as with Quantitive Easing in 2008 onwards) is being ignored... if ever there was a time for the idea of a People's QE, now is that time!

#economics #austerity

theguardian.com/politics/2025/

The Guardian · Economists urge Rachel Reeves to bend fiscal rules instead of cutting welfareBy Heather Stewart
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

If tariffs end up harming the importer's economy as much as the exporter's (as many economists argue, by virtue of their impact on inflation & the slowness of likely import substitution activity), then Trump's tariffs look likely to be felt hardest in the mid-West.... which is not going to do his popularity much good (but on the other hand as he will not face election again, he may not care).

Map/chart: U.S. import dependence of Canada & Mexico. Shows overall dependence at 28%, with many states below 20% but Montana at 93% & North Dakota at 71% in the North & Texas at 49% in the South full data at: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-u-s-states-import-the-most-from-canada-and-mexico/
#economics#tariffs
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

I know I sound like a broken record, but reading comments today on the slight drop in UK GDP in January, I've seen:

cost pressures allied to employers NI rises;

cost pressures due to changes international markets;

rising energy prices;

new green levies.

But when interest rates are mentioned we're led to believe that's about market views of UK public debt.

Why isn't anyone mentioning the explicit policy of the BoE to engineer a recession to 'control' inflation?

#HeadInMyHands
#economics

Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

At the root of many contemporary economic problems (the UK's productivity puzzle, deterioration in the terms & conditions of employment) is one simple issue:

Managers too often see workers not as a 'resource' to be invested in & nurtured for the long-term good of the organisation, but rather as a cost which can be reduced for short-term gain while the longer term consequences will be fixed (in some way) by technology.

The de-humanisaton of economics is a major problem!

#workers#economics
Public
Martin Nutty

This is worth a listen. Irish economist David McWilliams in conversation with Michael Lewis.

DMW suggests that the Trump admin is similar to the 15th century Ming Dynasty which chose to seal itself off to the rest of the world leaving the stage open to an emerging Europe

#Podcast #IrishPodcast #Economics #USPolitics

overcast.fm/+ABFWOlK0FHQ

overcast.fmIs America the Next Big Short? With Michael Lewis — The David McWilliams PodcastIn a week where the U.S. stock market has been rocked by recession fears and escalating trade tensions, we sit down with renowned author Michael Lewis, known for works like Liar’s Poker, The Big Short, and Moneyball, to dissect the economic landscape. The S&P 500 plummeted 5.7%, marking its worst week since September, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 4% drop, largely due to concerns over trade wars and slowing economic growth. Tesla’s stock took a significant hit, falling 15% in a single day and marking a 50% decline from its all-time high in December. Michael Lewis shares his insights on how trust, or the lack thereof, shapes financial markets, especially under the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration. We delve into the psychology driving economic decisions and explore whether America’s current trajectory mirrors the conditions that led to previous financial crises. So, is the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of another “big short”? Join the gang!…
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Denny Vrandečić

In the same week OpenAI announces a model that is "good at creative writing", OpenAI warns that national security is on the line if AI companies can't use copyrighted texts for free and without restrictions.

Project Stargate involving OpenAI was announced with 500 billion US dollar (and that's only one project)

The whole US book market has a revenue of 28 billion.

Yes, extractive companies such as OpenAI could pay.

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20

theguardian.com/technology/202

Ars Technica · OpenAI urges Trump: Either settle AI copyright debate or lose AI race to ChinaBy Ashley Belanger
#ai#economics#copyright
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

If regional banking is the answer to centralisation of financial services in London, then the proposed North West Mutual (a self-professed 'ethical' bank), backed by Preston City Council and to be based in the city, looks interesting.

Focussed on services to individuals & small business, it would add a financial services element to the ongoing Preston Pound project.

Although not expected to be in business until at least 2026, this looks like an interesting development!

#economics
h/t BBC

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